Dove sta andando l’Etiopia?

Sei morti eccellenti, tra cui il generale che si ritiene a capo dell’operazione, Asamnew Tsige. È l’unica certezza che resta del fallito colpo di stato in Etiopia, avvenuto nella notte tra sabato 22 e domenica 23 giugno.

Le dinamiche, al contrario, non sono ancora del tutto chiare, come non è agevolmente identificabile la portata degli avvenimenti, ridimensionati dal governo in carica a “golpe regionale”.

I fatti si sono svolti a Bahir Dar, capoluogo dell’Amhara, uno dei nove Stati dell’Etiopia, Paese federale. Il portavoce del primo ministro Abiy Ahmed, Negussu Tilahun, ha riferito di un commando che, guidato dal capo della sicurezza dell’Amhara, avrebbe fatto irruzione durante una riunione sabato sera, uccidendo sul colpo il presidente della regione, Ambachew Mekonnen, e il suo consigliere, Ezez Wassie, mentre il procuratore generale, Migbaru Kebede, è morto nelle ore successive in seguito alle gravi ferite riportate.

“Diverse ore dopo – ha spiegato il portavoce governativo – in ciò che appare essere stato un attacco coordinato, il Capo di stato maggiore delle forze armate etiopi, generale Seare Mekonnen, è stato ucciso dalla sua guardia del corpo nella sua abitazione”,

ad Addis Abeba. Morto insieme a lui anche un generale in pensione che si era recato a fargli visita. Poche ore prima l’ambasciata degli Stati Uniti aveva diramato un’allerta nella capitale.

La guardia del corpo di Seare Mekonnen, la cui identità non è stata rivelata, si trova al momento ricoverata in ospedale per le ferite d’arma da fuoco riportate nella sparatoria. In un primo momento, il governo aveva invece riferito dell’arresto della guardia del corpo, notizia in seguito smentita dal capo della polizia, Endeshaw Tasew, che aveva parlato di suicidio.

Il presunto organizzatore del fallito golpe, generale Asaminew Tsige, è stato invece ucciso dalla polizia mentre era in fuga, in una sparatoria avvenuta nella periferia di Bahir Dar. Il generale Asaminew Tsige era a capo delle forze di sicurezza dello Stato di Amhara. Nelle scorse settimane aveva incoraggiato la popolazione locale ad armarsi. Attraverso Facebook, che, insieme a Twitter, è ormai divenuto un social rivoluzionario. Se non altro perché aiuta a organizzare le rivoluzioni colorate.

Il generale Tsige non era nuovo a iniziative eversive. In passato era stato arrestato e condannato alla reclusione per un fallito colpo di stato. Ma, dopo la condanna a 9 anni di carcere era stato liberato, nel 2018, con un’amnistia concessa dall’ex presidente, Hailemariam Desalegn.

Difficile investigare sulle ragioni politiche che sono sfociate nella tragedia. Più probabile sarà guardare in direzione dei contrasti interetnici che dilaniano il paese da sempre. Ovviamente terreno facile di infiltrazione di forze esterne (leggi occidentali) che hanno diversi e complessi interessi geopolitici da regolare, insieme alla inesauribile fame di risorse che alimenta la infinita prosecuzione del colonialismo sotto più o meno mentite spoglie.

Restano i fatti degli scontri etnici degli ultimi mesi tra gli amhara (che rappresentano il ventisette per cento della popolazione, secondi solo agli oromo che, con il trentaquattro per cento, sono la prima etnia dell’Etiopia) e i gumuz. Si contano più di duecento morti.

Per arginare il conflitto, il governo di Addis Abeba ha di recente inviato l’esercito in quelle regioni, mentre le autorità locali –  di Amhara e Benishangul Gumuz – stavano tentando una mediazione tra le parti.

Tuttavia, con l’inasprirsi della situazione e con l’emergere di intenti indipendentisti, il primo ministro etiope avrebbe deciso di destituire il generale Tsige. Il quale avrebbe dunque tentato di anticipare il capo del governo. È una versione, questa, che incontra parecchio scetticismo anche tra fonti locali, che ritengono la tesi della rivalità etnica come una copertura per una motivazione più politica.

Il generale Tsige avrebbe tentato di guidare un nuovo golpe un anno dopo il suo rilascio per averne tentato un altro? Oppure Abiy Ahmed, protagonista dell’accordo di pace con l’Eritrea che gli ha fruttato la candidatura al Nobel per la pace lo scorso anno, ha colto la palla al balzo per liberarsi di tutti i suoi oppositori? Interrogativi che non saranno sciolti facilmente e non si vede chi potrebbe scioglierli.

Del resto, se si collocano i conflitti etnici in un quadro più ampio, non sfugge l’attenzione che Washington dedica all’Etiopia. Esiste una Amhara Association of America, con sede a Washington, il cui presidente, Tewodrose Tirfe, ha dichiarato recentemente che

“la comunità etiope-americana sta finalmente comprendendo come funziona il processo democratico americano, e crede di poter fare la differenza in Etiopia, a partire dallo Stato di Amhara”[1].

La potenza del messaggio è nota e può aprire strade lastricate di dollari. E non si vedono antagonisti in grado di mutare le cose.

[1] https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/ethiopian-diaspora-using-us-democracy-to-change-politics-at-home-1.3529392

https://revoluzione.unoeditori.com/colpo-di-stato-dove-sta-andando-letiopia

http://www.antimafiaduemila.com/home/terzo-millennio/232-crisi/74980-dove-sta-andando-l-etiopia.html

Dove sta andando l’Etiopia? di Margherita Furlan

Dove sta andando l’Etiopia?

 

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