Segnali generali di disordine prodotti da un cambio d’epoca


Con una mossa a sorpresa, il Qatar lascia l’Opec, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, a partire da gennaio. Ad annunciarlo è il nuovo ministro per l’Energia qatarina, Saad al-Kaabi in una conferenza stampa tenuta a Doha, capitale dell’Emirato. “Il ritiro riflette il desiderio del Qatar di concentrare i suoi sforzi nello sviluppo della produzione di gas naturale, portandola da 77 milioni di tonnellate all’anno a 110”, spiega al-Kaabi. La decisione, confermata alle emittenti televisive panarabe anche dalla Qatar Petroleum, compagnia petrolifera statale di Doha, arriva a pochi giorni dalla prossima riunione Opec, prevista il 6 dicembre. Voci di corridoio insistono che in quella sede l’Organizzazione, spinta da Arabia Saudita e Russia, rispettivamente il membro e il partner più grandi, deciderà nuovi tagli alle forniture dell’oro nero. I due Paesi hanno infatti concordato la continuazione della cooperazione nella gestione dell’approvvigionamento petrolifero nel 2019.

Il Qatar si è unito al cartello petrolifero nel 1961, un anno dopo la sua nascita. L’Emirato, che ha un Pil pro capite tra i più alti al mondo, con oltre 100 dollari ad abitante, è oggi l’undicesimo produttore di petrolio tra i Paesi aderenti Opec (620mila barili al giorno) ed è il più grande esportatore al mondo di gas naturale. Secondo quanto scrive il Financial Times, però, la decisione di Doha deriverebbe non tanto da ragioni di carattere squisitamente economico ma sarebbe l’ultima tappa (per ora) dello scontro politico in essere nella regione dal 5 giugno 2017. A dare il via alla crisi diplomatica furono i principali Paesi del Consiglio di Cooperazione del Golfo (Gcc) – Arabia Saudita, Emirati arabi uniti, Bahrain ed Egitto – che simultaneamente tagliarono le relazioni diplomatiche con il Qatar, accusato, all’improvviso, di sostenere i gruppi terroristici nella regione, ma soprattutto di avere legami troppo stretti con l’Iran, potenza sciita nemico numero uno dell’Arabia Saudita, dove è religione di Stato il wahabismo, base religiosa e ideologica dell’arcipelago radicale che ha generato tutti i grandi gruppi del terrorismo sunnita, da Al Qaeda a Daesh.

Nonostante le stime del Cultural Intelligence Institute del Michigan (Usa), dimostrino come negli ultimi trent’anni i sauditi avrebbero speso più di 100 miliardi di dollari per diffondere il wahabismo in una lunga serie di Paesi, e per quanto i petrodollari dei Saud siano sempre stati molto apprezzati da Stati Uniti ed Europa (in particolar modo da Gran Bretagna, Francia, e, non ultima, l’Italia, Paesi questi ultimi che hanno lungamente flirtato con i Saud), il Qatar è riuscito a sopravvivere all’isolamento fisico cui i vicini l’hanno condannato, grazie all’aiuto di Iran e Turchia. I quattro Paesi, infatti, hanno sigillato i confini terrestri e marittimi con il piccolo Emirato, chiuso il proprio spazio aereo ai voli da e per Doha ed espulso i cittadini qatarini. Un tentativo, finora fallito, di strangolare il Paese al quale Doha ha reagito mettendo in campo estesi sforzi diplomatici e cercando di guadagnare posizioni nella comunità internazionale, anche firmando ulteriori e lucrose commesse militari con Usa, Francia e Regno Unito.

La decisione ha determinato sui mercati un’impennata del prezzo del petrolio. Le quotazioni del Wti (riferimento Usa) avanzano di oltre il 4% a 53,09 dollari al barile, mentre quelle del Brent (riferimento europeo) crescono del 3,85% portandosi a 61,76 dollari, anche sull’onda della decisione di Trump di posticipare di 90 giorni l’aumento dei dazi doganali al 25% sui prodotti cinesi per un valore di 200 miliardi di dollari. La reazione del mercato è stata dunque relativamente forte, considerato che il Qatar produce meno del 2% del greggio al mondo. “Gli analisti si stanno probabilmente concentrando sull’impatto simbolico di questa decisione, che sta mostrando qualche conflitto all’interno dell’organizzazione dei produttori”, spiega Carlo Alberto De Casa, capo analista di ActiveTrades, secondo il quale “il rimbalzo è stato probabilmente amplificato poiché arriva dopo un trend ribassista di lungo termine”. 

Tuttavia, appare evidente che le diplomazie del Golfo si muovono nella nebbia a loro sconosciuta. Nel disordine generale, prodotto da un enorme cambio d’epoca, gli equilibri si stanno rapidamente modificando, mentre le giovani élite, non sentendosi più tranquille sotto l’ombra della Cia, percepiscono l’indebolimento dell’Impero. 

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